Kuneneratu Kupambana: Njira 6 Zotsimikizika

Kuneneratu ndi chinthu chofunikira kwambiri pafupifupi gawo lililonse la ntchito, kuyambira pachuma komanso kutha ndi ukadaulo. Pali kuchuluka kwakukulu kwamapulogalamu mu izi. Tsoka ilo, sikuti ogwiritsa ntchito onse amadziwa kuti pulosete ya tebulo la qualy ya qualy ali ndi zida zolosera zakuneneratu, zomwe mu mphamvu zake ndizotsika pang'ono pa mapulogalamu aluso. Tiyeni tiwone panali zida zamtundu wanji, komanso momwe mungapangire zakuka.

KUSINTHA KWAMBIRI

Cholinga cha kuneneratu kulikonse ndikuzindikira zomwe zikuchitika, ndipo tanthauzo la zotsatira zakelo mogwirizana ndi chinthu chomwe chikuphunzitsidwa mogwirizana ndi tsogolo lina.

Njira 1: Chidule

Chimodzi mwazinthu zofananira kwambiri zowonekera kwambiri ndi zowonjezera zomwe zimapangidwa pomanga mzere.

Tiyeni tiyesere kulosera za phindu la kampaniyo pambuyo pa zaka zitatu pamaziko a data pachizindikiro ichi kwa zaka 12 zapitazi.

1. Tikupanga ndandanda yotengera data ya tabular yopanga mikangano ndi malingaliro a ntchito. Kuti muchite izi, sankhani malowa, kenako, pomwe mu "kuyika" tabu, dinani chithunzi cha mtundu womwe mukufuna. Kenako sankhani mtunduwo woyenera kuchitika. Ndikofunika kusankha chithunzi. Mutha kusankha mawonekedwe ena, koma pomwepo zomwe zawonetsedwa moyenera, muyenera kusintha, makamaka, chotsani mzere ndikusankha gawo lina la ma axis opingasa.



2. Tsopano tifunika kumanga chingwe chamoyo. Timapanga dinani kumanja pazinthu zilizonse za chithunzi. Mu menyu oyambitsidwa, mumayimitsa kusankha pandime ya "Onjezani".



3. Windo la Qundess Line lomen limatsegulidwa. Itha kusankha chimodzi mwa mitundu isanu ndi umodzi ya kuyandikira:
   • Mzere;
   • Logolositic;
   • Chowonjezera;
   • Mphamvu;
   • Polynomial;
   • Kufesa kwa mzere.

   Choyamba tiyeni tisankhe zokhudzana ndi mzere.

   Mu "zosintha" za "kutsogolo kwa" gawo la "Takhazikitsa nambala ya" 3.0 ", pamene tikufunika kulosera kwa zaka zitatu mtsogolo. Kuphatikiza apo, mutha kukhazikitsa nkhupakupa pafupi ndi zokonda "kuwonetsa equation pa chithunzi" ndikuti "ikani mtengo wa mtengo wa kuyandikira (r ^ 2)" Pa chithunzi. Chizindikiro chomaliza chikuwonetsa mtundu wa mzere. Zikhazikiko zitatha, dinani batani la "Tsekani".



4. Mzere wa Tristiyo umamangidwa ndipo titha kudziwa kuchuluka kwa phindu pazaka zitatu. Monga tikuwona, pofika nthawi imeneyo akuyenera kumasulira ma ruble aku 4500. Wokondedwa wa R2, monga tafotokozera pamwambapa, akuwonetsa mtundu wa chizolowezi chamoyo. Kwa ife, mtengo wa R2 ndi 0,89. Kukhazikika kwakukulu, kudalilika kwa mzere. Mtengo wokwanira wake ukhoza kukhala wofanana ndi 1. Amakhulupirira kuti ndi zogwirizana zopitilira 0,85 mzere wotsogola ndi wodalirika.



5. Ngati simukukhutira ndi mulingo wodalirika, mutha kubwerera ku zenera la mtundu wa Trend ndikusankha mtundu wina uliwonse. Mutha kuyesa zosankha zonse zomwe zilipo kuti mupeze zolondola kwambiri.

   

   Tiyenera kudziwa kuti kulosera koyenera pogwiritsa ntchito njira yosinthira kungakhale ngati nthawi yolosera sikupitilira 30% ya nthawi yofufuzidwa. Ndiye kuti, popenda zaka 12, sitinganene zamtsogolo kwambiri kwa zaka zoposa 3-4. Koma ngakhale pamenepa, zidzakhala zodalirika ngati panthawiyi padzakhalapo mphamvu kapena zosiyana kwambiri ndi zina kwambiri zomwe sizinali m'mbuyomu.

Phunziro: Momwe Mungapangire Mfundo Yabwino Kwambiri

Njira 2: Othandizira Olosera

Kuchulukitsa kwa deta ya dagalar kumatha kupangidwa kudzera muyezo wa chiwonetsero cha chiwonetserochi. Kutsutsana uku kumatanthauza gulu la zida zowerengera ndipo ali ndi syntax:

= Kuneneratu (X; kudziwika_ms; zodziwika bwino;

"X" ndi mkangano, mtengo wa ntchito yomwe muyenera kufotokoza. Monga momwe, monga mkanganowo idzakhala chaka chomwe kulosera kuyenera kupangidwa.

"Malingaliro odziwika y" - m'munsi mwa ntchito zodziwika bwino. Monga momwe, pantchito yake, kukula kwa phindu kwa nthawi yapita.

"Mfundo zodziwika bwino X" ndi zotsutsana zomwe zimagwirizana ndi zomwe amadziwika za ntchitoyo. Potengera ntchito yawo, tili ndi zomwe zaka zambiri, zomwe zambiri za zaka zapitazi zidasonkhanitsidwa.

Mwachilengedwe, monga mkangano sizitanthauza gawo lakanthawi. Mwachitsanzo, amatha kukhala kutentha, ndipo ntchito ya ntchitoyi ikhoza kukhala kuchuluka kwa kuchuluka kwa madzi pakutenthedwa.

Mukamawerengera njira iyi, njira yobwererera mzere imagwiritsidwa ntchito.

Tiyeni tisanthule maziko a kugwiritsa ntchito kwa wothandizirayo amalosera mwachitsanzo. Tengani tebulo lomwelo. Tidzafunika kudziwa zamtsogolo kwa chaka cha 2018.

1. Timatsindika khungu lopanda kanthu pa pepala pomwe kukonza zotsatiraku. Dinani pa batani la "phala ntchito".



2. Wizard akutsegula. Mu gulu la "Statistical" Gawani dzina ", kenako dinani batani la" OK ".



3. Zenera lotsutsana limayamba. M'munda wa "X", timatchula mtengo wa mkangano womwe umafunika kupezeka. M'malo mwathu ndi 2018. Chifukwa chake, tikudziwitsa mbiri "2018". Koma ndibwino kutchula chizindikilo ichi mu cell pa pepalalo, ndipo m'munda wa "X" umangopereka chilumikizani. Izi zilola mtsogolo kuti musunge kuwerengera ndikusintha mosavuta chaka.

   Mu "mikhalidwe yodziwika Y" Gawo, timatchulanso mgwirizano wa "Phibfits Repriise". Izi zitha kuchitika pokhazikitsa cholozera m'munda, kenako ndikukwera batani lakumanzere ndikuwonetsa kuti mulingo woyenera papepala.

   Mofananamo, m'munda wa X "womwe amatifotokozeranso adilesi ya chaka cha chaka ndi data ya nthawi yakale.

   Pambuyo pazomwe chidziwitso chonsecho chimapangidwa, dinani batani la "OK".



4. Wogwiritsa ntchito amawerengetsa pamaziko a data yomwe idalowa ndikuwonetsa zotsatira pazenera. Pazaka za 2018, zimakonzedwa kuti zipindule mozungulira zitunda za 4564.7. Kutengera patebulopo, titha kupanga ndandanda pogwiritsa ntchito zida zopangira zolengedwa zomwe tafotokozazi.



5. Ngati mungasinthe chaka chimodzi m'chipinda chomwe chimagwiritsidwa ntchito kulowa mkanganowo, zotsatira zake zidzasintha, ndipo ndandandayi isinthidwa. Mwachitsanzo, malinga ndi kunenera mu 2019, kuchuluka kwa phindu kumakhala ma ruble 4637.8,000.

Koma musaiwale kuti, monga pomanga mzere wa zochitika za machitidwe, kutalika kwa nthawi mpaka nthawi yoloserayo sikuyenera kupitirira 30% ya nthawi yonse yomwe database yapeza.

Phunziro: Kuchulukitsa ku Excel

Njira 3: Ogwiritsa Ntchito

Kuneneratu, mutha kugwiritsa ntchito ntchito ina - zochitika. Ichiriraninso gulu la ogwiritsa ntchito owerengera. Syntax yake imafanana ndi syntax ya chida cha Tsotic ndipo chikuwoneka ngati chonchi:

= Chizolowezi (malingaliro odziwika_y; Makhalidwe odziwika_x; Chatsopano_x; []]

Monga tikuwona, zotsutsana ndi "y zodziwika bwino" ndizofanana bwino ndi zinthu zofananazi ndi zinthu zofananira za zotsatsa, ndi "mfundo zatsopano x" zotsutsana ndi chida chapitacho. Kuphatikiza apo, zomwe zimachitika zimatsutsana kwambiri kwa nthawi zonse, koma sizikuyenera ndipo sizikugwiritsidwa ntchito pokhapokha ngati pali zinthu zosatha.

Wogwiritsa ntchito uyu amagwiritsidwa ntchito bwino pamaso pa kudalira kwa lemirimu.

Tiyeni tiwone momwe chida ichi chidzagwirira ntchito zonse ndi zomwezo. Kuti muyerekeze zotsatira zomwe zapezeka, malo owonetseratu asankha 2019.

1. Timapanga makonzedwe a cellyo kuti awonetse zotsatira zake ndikuyendetsa ntchito zomwe amagwira ntchito mwa njira wamba. M'magulu "owerengera" timapeza dzina "chizolowezi". Dinani pa batani la "OK".



2. Zolinga za Ogwiritsa ntchito zenera zimayambitsa chizolowezi. Mu "mfundo zodziwika za Y" Njira, njira yogwirizira zopindulitsa za kampani yafotokozedwa kale pamwambapa. Mu "mfundo zodziwika X" m'munda, lowetsani adilesi ya chaka cha chaka. Mu "Mfundo Zatsopano X" timalowa ulalo wa selo, komwe chiwerengero cha chaka chomwe chikuwonetseratu chidzafotokozedwe. Kwa ife, ndi 2019. Munda "nthawi zonse" uchoka wopanda kanthu. Dinani pa batani la "OK".



3. Wogwiritsa ntchitoyo amafotokoza za zomwe zimachitika ndikuwonetsa zotsatira pazenera. Monga mukuwonera, kuchuluka kwa phindu la 2019, kuwerengeredwa ndi njira yodalirika ya mzere, adzakhala ngati njira yowerengera, ma ruble 4637.000.

Njira 4: Kukula

Ntchito ina yomwe mungaloseretu, ndi othandiza. Ichiriraninso gulu lazida la zida, koma, mosiyana ndi zomwe kale, sizigwiritsa ntchito njira yodalirika, koma owonjezera. Syntax ya chida ichi chikuwoneka:

= Kukula (malingaliro odziwika_y; zodziwika;

Monga tikuwona, zotsutsana za gawoli zimabwereza zonena za woperekayo, kuti tisasiye nthawi yachiwiri pakufotokozera, koma nthawi yomweyo tidzapitiriza kugwiritsa ntchito chida ichi.

1. Timagawana khungu lotulutsa ndipo nthawi zambiri zimayambitsa ntchito za ntchito. Pamndandanda wa ogwiritsa ntchito, tikufuna "kukula" gawo, timagawa ndikudina batani la "Ok".



2. Windo la kukangana la ntchito yomwe yatchulidwayi idayambitsidwa. Timalowa m'munda wa zenera ili ndi ofanana ndi momwe tidalowera m'mitundu ya wothandizirayo pawindo. Pambuyo pa zomwe zalembedwa, dinani batani la "Ok".



3. Zotsatira za kukonza deta kumawonetsedwa palowunika mu chipinda chomwe kale. Monga tikuwona, nthawi ino zotsatira zake ndi ma ruble 4682.1,000. Kusiyana kwa zotsatira za kukonza deta pokonzanso kwa wothandizirayo kumakhala kochepa, koma akupezeka. Izi zimachitika chifukwa chakuti zida izi zimagwiritsira ntchito njira zosiyanasiyana zowerengera: Njira yodalirika ya mzere ndi njira yosinthira.

Njira 5: Ogwiritsa ntchito

Wopanga mzere pomwe kuwerengera amagwiritsa ntchito njira yolumikizira mzere. Sikoyenera kusokonezedwa ndi njira yodalirika yogwiritsira ntchito chida cha chizolowezi chogwiritsidwa ntchito ndi chida cha chizolowezi. Syntax yake ili ndi mtunduwu:

= Chidziwitso (zodziwika bwino_y; zodziwika;

Mikangano iwiri yomaliza ndiosankha. Ndi awiri oyamba tikudziwa njira zomwe zidayambira. Koma mwina mwazindikira kuti palibe mkangano mu ntchito imeneyi, kuwonetsa mfundo zatsopano. Chowonadi ndi chakuti chida ichi chimangotanthauza kusintha kokha kuchuluka kwa ndalama iliyonse, komwe ku Natimenti kuli chaka chimodzi, koma ndalama zambiri ziwerengedwe mosiyana, kuwonjezera zotsatira za kuwerengera kwa ogwiritsa ntchito, kuchulukitsa ndi kuchuluka kwa zaka.

1. Timapanga kusankha kwa selo yomwe kuwerengera zidzapangidwa ndikuyendetsa ntchito za ntchitozo. Timagawa dzina "lodene" mu gawo la "zowerengera" ndikudina batani la "Ok".



2. Mu "mfundo zodziwika bwino" m'munda, zomwe zinatsegula zenera la zokangana, idziwitsani mgwirizano wa "phindu la 'phindu la' Phibfits Entergn. Mu "mfundo zodziwika bwino za X, timayambitsa adilesi ya" chaka ". Minda yotsalayo siimasiyidwa opanda kanthu. Kenako dinani batani la "OK".



3. Pulogalamuyi imawerengera ndikuwonetsa phindu la mzere womwe umachitika ku cell yosankhidwa.



4. Tsopano tiyenera kudziwa kukula kwa phindu la 2019. Ikani chizindikiro "=" Lowani mu khungu lililonse lopanda kanthu pa pepalalo. Dinani pa cell, yomwe ili ndi phindu lenileni la phindu la chaka chatha chaka (2016). Ikani chizindikiro "+". Dinaninso pa cell, yomwe ili ndi zomwe zidawerengedwa kale. Timaika chikwangwani "*". Popeza pakati pa chaka chatha cha nthawi yomwe yawerengedwa (2016) ndi chaka chonena za kulosera (2019) masiku atatu, tinakhazikitsa nambala "3" m'chipindacho. Kupanga kuwerengetsa podina batani la Lower.

Monga mukuwonera, mtengo wowerengedwa wowerengedwa ndi njira yolumikizira mzere, mu 2019 adzakhala ma ruble 4614.

Njira 6: Wogwiritsa ntchito LGRFPPLL

Chida chomaliza chomwe tiyang'ana chidzakhala LGRFPGL. Wogwiritsa ntchitoyu amapanga mawerengero kutengera njira yowonjezera. Syntax yake ili ndi izi:

= Lgrfpriblin (zodziwika bwino_y; zodziwika; yx; zatsopano_x_x; [ziwerengero])

Monga mukuwonera, zonse zomwe zimatsutsana zimabwereza kwathunthu zomwe zikugwirizana ndi zomwe zili m'mbuyomu. Algorithm algorithm imasintha pang'ono. Ntchitoyo imawerengera zomwe zingasonyezedwe kuti kuchuluka kwa ndalama zasinthidwa nthawi imodzi, ndiye kuti, kwa chaka. Tiyenera kupeza kusiyana pakati pa nthawi yomaliza komanso yokonzekera, chulukidwe ndi chiwerengero cha nyengo yokonzekera (3) ndikuwonjezera zotsatira za kuchuluka kwa nthawi yeniyeni.

1. Pamndandanda wa ogwiritsa ntchito a Mwini, timagawa dzina "Lgrvuprible". Timapanga batani pa batani la "Ok".



2. Zenera lotsutsana limayamba. Mmenemo timayambitsa data monga momwe adachitira mukamagwiritsa ntchito mzere. Dinani pa batani la "OK".



3. Zotsatira za chowonjezera zimawerengedwa ndikuwonjezeredwa ku cell yomwe yasankhidwa.



4. Timayika chikwangwani "=" kukhala khungu lopanda kanthu. Timatsegula mabatani ndikusankha khungu lomwe lili ndi mtengo wa ndalama zomaliza. Timayika chikwangwani "*" ndikuwonetsa khungu lomwe lili ndi chidwi. Timayika chikwangwani cha minus ndikudina kachiwiri pazinthu zomwe kuchuluka kwa ndalama zili nthawi yomaliza. Timatseka bulaketi ndikuyendetsa otchulidwa "* * 3 + 3" popanda mawu. Apanso, dinani pafoni yomweyo, yomwe idaperekedwa kwa nthawi yomaliza. Kuchita kuwerengera, kanikizani batani la Enter.

Ndalama zonenedweratu za mu 2019, zomwe zidawerengedwa ndi njira zowonjezera, zidzakhala zitunda 469.2, zomwe sizisiyanitsa ndi zotsatira zomwe zimapezeka powerengera njira zomwe zidakwaniritsidwa.

Phunziro: Ntchito zina zowerengera

Tinazindikira njira ziti zomwe zinganeneratu mu pulogalamu ya Excel. Itha kuchitidwa momasuka pogwiritsa ntchito mzere wa Trend, ndikusanthula - pogwiritsa ntchito magawo angapo omangidwa. Chifukwa chokonza deta yofananira, ogwiritsa ntchitowa atha kukhala osiyana ndi ena. Koma sizosadabwitsa, chifukwa onse amagwiritsa ntchito njira zosiyanasiyana zowerengera. Ngati oscillation ndi ochepa, ndiye kuti zosankha zonsezi zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pamlanduwu zitha kuonedwa kuti ndi yodalirika.